The protests to commemorate the June 25th protests turned violent. At least 15 people were killed, and 400 injured. Property damage went into the millions. We mourn with the families that lost their loved ones in the senseless violence.
As expected, the government reaction to the protest will only fuel public anger. There was aggressive display of police force – from the razor wire fences to fire breathing marching orders from the highest offices in the land. On their part, police responded with violence and disruption of the crowds, which is always a precursor to chaos.
Even worse was the government’s assessment in the aftermath of the protests. The official line was that the protesters were violent coup plotters. Forget that for the better part of a year anyone with a brain has understood the core issues motivating the protests.
The government has chosen repression over dialogue and reforms. The only problem with this choice is that it is mighty hard to repress people with little to lose.
History teaches us that successful government repression often relies on an implicit moral economy founded on a concrete bargain. Often, oppressive regimes rely on a middle class that prioritises order and a promise of a better future. Those unwilling to yield to the regime then get cast as troublemakers that must be disciplined. Absent such a contract, oppression rarely succeeds; and often just devolves into uncontrolled violence from both the state and organised criminal networks (some sponsored by the state).
Another important ingredient tends to be the ability of the state to direct a disciplined force. Discipline is important because repression works if the state’s behaviour is predictable, and the violence from the state is not random.
Given these patterns, the current administration has two problems. First, it does not have a positive narrative that it can sell the middle class about order as a foundation for material prosperity.
Furthermore, ethnic division among the middle class leaves little room for such a broad-based bargain.
Second, the state’s tools of oppression (principally the police) and the politicians that lead them are thoroughly undisciplined. Instead of eliciting fear, they invite derision. Notice that even oppressive regimes require a modicum of legitimacy and public deference. Absent that, the cost of repression explodes beyond control.
Where does this leave us? It would be ideal if the administration understood that they bear the greatest responsibility in de-escalating the situation and lowering temperatures. It is disingenuous to ignore the real grievances of Kenya’s youth, and instead focus on overzealous sloganeering as evidence of a coup plot; it also does not help to chase shadows in the dark looking for hidden hands behind the protests.
While it is true that there may be political opportunists out to ride the protest wave, the best way to neutralise them is by addressing the youth’s grievances. It is as simple as that.
The writer is a professor at Georgetown University
