A nation on the climate frontlines

In the vast, open landscapes of Kenya’s arid and semi-arid lands—where rivers like the Tana snake through sun-scorched plains, climate change is no longer a distant threat. It is a reality.

In these communities, where people still depend on seasonal rains for their livestock, crops, and livelihoods, climate shocks have grown more frequent, more intense, and far more devastating.

The drought of 2023 withered pastures and cracked earth beneath the hooves of thirsty cattle.

Barely a year later, the floods of 2024 surged through villages and farms, sweeping away homes, lives, and hopes with equal force.

As River Tana burst their banks and the land shifted from parched to drowning, the message became impossible to ignore:  Kenya must build resilience, not reactively, but proactively.

It was against this backdrop of crisis and urgency that the Weather and Climate Information Services (WISER) Kenya Project was born from WISRER Africa programme. WISER Kenya initiative emerged as a beacon of transformation, where data meets dignity, and forecasts become lifesaving tools. Its mission: to turn early warnings into early action, particularly for the country’s most vulnerable.

Launched in November 2024, WISER Kenya is not just another weather program—it is a comprehensive climate resilience strategy.

Funded by the UK government through the Foreign, Commonwealth and Development Office (FCDO) and implemented through the UK Met Office, the project is implemented by a coalition of powerhouse institutions:  IGAD Climate Prediction and Applications Centre (ICPAC), Kenya Meteorological Department (KMD), and the Kenya Red Cross Society (KRCS), in collaboration with various government agencies, including the National Drought Management Authority (NDMA).

“From the outset, the project took a bold approach: climate services should not only be scientifically accurate but inclusive, accessible, and actionable,” notes the project manager, Dr Philip Omondi.

With a focus on the Lower Tana River basin, the project seeks to improve the availability, access, and use of climate and early warning information, while supporting inclusive planning and decision-making.

“This project is about saving lives and livelihoods by ensuring that no one is left behind when disaster strikes,” Dr Omondi notes.

“We’re focusing on Gender, Equity, and Social Inclusion (GESI) considerations, and building systems that actually work for the vulnerable communities in Tana River and Garissa Counties.”

Whether it was a pastoralist in Garissa or a farmer in Tana River, WISER sought to make sure everyone—regardless of gender, education, or ability—could receive, understand, and act on climate warnings.

The project responded directly to the trauma of recent years. The 2023 drought had displaced thousands and caused widespread hunger. Then came El Niño-related floods in 2024, which killed over 170 people, displaced more than 500,000, and destroyed 17,000 acres of farmland.

This cycle of devastation demanded more than emergency aid. It demanded systems that could see the future coming—and prepare for it.

Kenya’s recent history paints a vivid picture of why such a project is urgently needed. A prolonged drought between 2019 and 2022 left many regions struggling with food insecurity, water scarcity, and livestock losses. Then in late 2023, catastrophic floods swept through much of the country, causing widespread destruction.

These extreme weather events underscore a harsh reality: traditional systems for forecasting, preparation, and response are no longer sufficient.

“The gaps in climate information services have been glaring,” Dr Omondi explains. “People either receive warnings too late or don’t understand them, and marginalized communities often don’t receive any information at all.”

To fill this gap, WISER Kenya focuses on five transformative pillars: The first is improving the reach and equity of climate information. Through a strong gender, equity, and social inclusion (GESI) considerations, the project ensures vulnerable populations— including women, the elderly, people with disabilities (PWDs), and remote communities—are not only recipients of climate information but also co-design and co-create climate information.

The second pillar is enhancing the timeliness and actionability of early warnings. By developing localised Early Warning Systems (EWS) that communicate in clear, trusted, and culturally appropriate ways, the project enables communities to take preemptive action.

Increasing preparedness and response capacity comes third; From training to the provision of physical resources, WISER Kenya is building the ability of local institutions and individuals to act before disasters escalate.

WISER Kenya project also focuses on Anticipatory Actions before a disaster occurs thus reducing losses and damages, with a goal to address the impact of fl oods, droughts, and other hazards through systems that prioritize foresight over reaction.

At the heart of WISER Kenya’s strategy is also a sophisticated set of forecasting tools.

“The Standardised Precipitation-Evapotranspiration Index (SPEI) was used to monitor drought conditions, while the Weather Research and Forecasting Hydrological (WRF-Hydro) Model predicted flood risks with remarkable precision” explained Dr Omondi. “Providing up to three days of advance warning in high-risk zones like the Tana River basin.”

He said the models were not developed in isolation. They were co-produced with communities and local experts, blending science with lived experience. Technical workshops were held to refi ne these tools, establishing thresholds such as an SPEI score below -1.0 to trigger drought response or specific river levels to prompt flood evacuations.

During the March–May 2025 floods, WRF-Hydro issued forecasts that enabled the Kenya Red Cross to evacuate 2,000 households in Tana River before the waters rose. Relief supplies were prepositioned, and thanks to this Anticipatory Action initiative, displacement was reduced by 40% compared to the previous year.

Similarly, in Garissa, the project used SPEI triggers to activate Forecast-based Financing (FbF) through the Kenya Red Cross in February 2025.  About 5,000 pastoralist households received emergency animal feed just before drought conditions peaked—preserving 70% of livestock herds that would have otherwise been lost.

Inclusion as a pillar of resilience

Perhaps the most profound achievement of the WISER Kenya Project is its unwavering focus on equity and inclusion. Climate resilience, it insists, must be shared resilience. In many Kenyan communities, women carry the heaviest burden during climate disasters—walking longer distances for water, caring for the sick, and rationing food. Yet, historically, their voices have been absent from planning tables.

WISER changed that narrative

Through Participatory Scenario Planning (PSP) workshops held in Tana River and Garissa, women, youth, and people with disabilities were invited to shape the very climate services they would later use. Their insights—on water availability, grazing cycles, and coping strategies—were not just heard, but embedded into early warning systems.

Additionally, the project prioritized communication accessibility. Weather bulletins were translated into local languages and aired via radio; colorful, visual forecasts were distributed in markets and schools. These efforts ensured that 60% of women and youth in the project areas received and understood early warnings.

In some communities, the results were revolutionary.  Women-led groups used forecasts to establish community seed banks, planting flood-tolerant crops and distributing seeds to neighbors. In doing so, they not only fed their families but also created a ripple effect of knowledge and empowerment.

A tapestry of partnerships: collaboration in action

WISER Kenya is a living testament to the power of partnerships. Its impact stems from the seamless cooperation of meteorologists, humanitarian workers, government officials, and community leaders—each playing a vital role in a larger resilience puzzle.

Through quarterly technical working group meetings, data-sharing protocols were established among ICPAC, KMD, KRCS, and NDMA. This allowed real-time integration of climate, socioeconomic, and gender-disaggregated data into platforms like the East Africa Hazards Watch (EAHW). Decision-makers, from county governors to Red Cross volunteers, could now visualize hazard impacts and coordinate response strategies like never before.

Beyond borders, WISER Kenya engaged with regional forums like GHACOF (Greater Horn of Africa Climate Outlook Forum), ensuring Kenya’s progress informed—and was informed by—its neighbors. The project’s training programs reached over 200 professionals across agriculture, water, health, and disaster sectors, building a nationwide network of climate-literate actors.

Ultimately, the WISER Kenya Project proved that early warnings do not merely inform—they empower. When delivered early and in the right format, they allow people to act, protect, prepare, and survive.

The human face of forecasts

On a humid morning in Garissa, a woman tunes into a local radio station as the sun rises. The announcer, speaking in Somali, explains that rainfall will be delayed this season and advises pastoralists to move livestock to hire a new grazing place. It’s more than just a weather update—it’s a lifeline.

This is the true power of the WISER Kenya Project: turning distant data into intimate knowledge, and transforming uncertainty into preparedness.

In forums like the Greater Horn of Africa Climate Outlook Forum (GHACOF) and National Climate Outlook Forum (NCOF), the inclusion of women, youth, and PWDs in forecast co-design has ensured that weather and climate information is more relevant and usable. One such initiative, the Lower Tana Flood Alert WhatsApp group, now serves as a critical node for real-time updates, allowing residents to prepare in advance.

Participatory forecast development has not only increased trust but also led to localized, sector-specific adaptation strategies. Recognizing the technical nature of forecasting, the project conducted training for local institutions on tools like WRF-Hydro for hydrological modeling and SPEI for drought prediction.

This training is equipping KMD staff, KRCS personnel, and county officers to deliver more precise and actionable climate services. This enhanced technical proficiency has improved flood and drought forecasts for the Tana River Basin, increasing community confidence in early warning systems.

Through its vulnerability mapping exercise, WISER Kenya produced detailed, validated maps that have become essential decision-making tools. The County Government of Tana River, in particular, has requested support in developing a PWD Policy that includes climate information access.

Concrete steps have been taken to mainstream climate risk data into planning and policy frameworks, signaling a shift from reaction to resilience.

Climate change disproportionately affects women and girls, yet they are also uniquely positioned to drive solutions. WISER Kenya ensures that women are not only included but play a leadership role in shaping early warning systems.

“By integrating GESI into every step—from design to delivery— we’re ensuring that women and other marginalized groups are not just heard, but empowered,” Dr Omondi emphasises.

The emphasis on data cannot be overstated. From baseline surveys to hydrological modeling, data collection underpins every aspect of the project.

“Our decisions are grounded in real-world data—climate vulnerability maps, forecast models, and ground-truth observations,” Dr Omondi explains. “But we also recognize the challenges in accessing historical datasets, which is an area that needs investment.”

The goal is to ensure county governments are not only recipients of data but active users, informing infrastructure planning, emergency response, and land use.

From digital platforms like WhatsApp and Kobo Toolbox to sophisticated modeling tools like WRF-Hydro, technology plays a vital role in extending the reach and accuracy of early warnings.

“We’re seeing how mobile platforms can democratize access to life-saving information,” says Dr Omondi. “But we must also tackle challenges like digital illiteracy and infrastructure gaps.”

However, Kenya’s journey to climate resilience is far from over, but thanks to WISER Programme in Kenya, the path forward is clearer. It is a path defined by science and solidarity, by early warnings and early action, and above all, by the conviction that no one should be left behind when the rain comes— or when it doesn’t.

As the climate crisis accelerates, projects like WISER Kenya offer more than just hope—they offer a replicable blueprint for how data, inclusion, and local knowledge can converge to protect people, property, and the planet.