Sh10.5 billion ploy: Experts now cast doubts on Ruto's ambitious 15 billion trees push

Doubts have emerged over the viability of the government’s programme to plant 15 billion trees by 2032.

As the country marked the third annual Mazingira Day, it emerged that in just one day, the government could have spent at least Sh10.5 billion to procure 71.14 million tree seedlings across the country.

The Saturday Standard has established that each fruit tree seedling planted yesterday was procured from the National Youth Service (NYS) at a cost of Sh150.

In a circular dated October 9, Basic Education Principal Secretary Julius Bitok directed all ministries, state departments, and other public institutions to actively participate in tree planting across the country. He noted that both public and private primary schools had been identified as the main venues for the exercise, with each school expected to plant a minimum of 2,000 fruit trees.

According to the directive, 35,570 public and private primary schools were expected to plant the trees on Friday. This means the government could have spent more than Sh10.5 billion on the purchase of seedlings—before factoring in the cost of planting, logistics, transport, and the entire exercise.

In addition, Cabinet Secretaries and Principal Secretaries were required to lead the exercise from their former schools—an activity that also consumed public funds, further fuelling concerns over the financial implications for taxpayers.

On Friday, President William Ruto urged every Kenyan to contribute to the national tree-planting drive towards achieving the ambitious goal by 2032.

“To make this vision a reality, the government will provide seedlings across the country. The Kenya Forest Service, working with the National Youth Service, will mobilise 15,000 NYS personnel to revive 300 nurseries in all our forests and establish 17 mega nurseries to produce two billion seedlings every year for Kenyans to plant,” said Ruto.
Speaking when he joined pupils of State House Primary School for a tree-planting exercise at State House, Nairobi, Ruto said the seedlings would include fruit trees to strengthen food security and create opportunities for export, agro-processing, and job creation.

“This initiative will also protect our water catchments and reduce the effects of climate change,” he said.
Climate action has become the cornerstone of President Ruto’s development agenda. However, its hefty cost and unstructured rollout are raising fears of deep financial implications for taxpayers.

Wiper Democratic Movement leader Kalonzo Musyoka dismissed the government’s efforts, accusing it of hypocrisy.

“The Ruto regime calls for reform of international institutions and climate change agendas while auctioning our forests for carbon credits for personal gain. Kenyans must know that even our forests and national parks are up for sale—the very oxygen we breathe,” Kalonzo said during Wiper’s NDC in Nairobi.

Launched with fanfare and urgency in October 2022, the 15-billion-tree initiative was designed to combat the effects of climate change and restore degraded landscapes. So far, the country has planted 1.06 billion trees since the national reforestation campaign began in December 2022, according to the Environment Ministry—using billions of shillings in public funds.

Critical questions

Yet, as the country celebrates environmental stewardship, critical questions linger: Is the goal realistically achievable, or merely a lofty political promise entangled in bureaucracy and poor planning?

Laban Gitiba, Assistant Conservator of Forests in Nairobi, said Kenya’s tree-planting campaign risks failure due to poor planning, inadequate funding, and lack of technical guidance.

“We are shifting from normal trees to fruit trees. That change is good for livelihoods but difficult to sustain. Fruit trees require more resources and care, yet most nurseries and counties are not prepared,” he said.
Gitiba noted that severe land pressure leaves little space for long-term reforestation.

“People just walk to a nursery, pick any seedling, and plant it anywhere. There’s no sensitisation or guidance on which tree fits which site,” he said.
Environmental expert Teresa Muthoni said this year’s focus should have been on the survival of already planted trees.

“It’s good to be ambitious, but what is the survival rate? When you put a tree in the ground and tell me you’ve planted one billion trees, that’s fine—but how many are surviving?” she asked.
She said monitoring mechanisms should have been established to track the growth and survival of seedlings, adding that the initiative cannot be judged by numbers alone.

Muthoni also questioned the feasibility of planting 2,000 fruit trees in each of the 35,000 schools, terming it unrealistic.

“Planting 2,000 fruit trees would require about 12 hectares. An avocado tree, for example, needs spacing of five metres by five metres—so a hectare accommodates only 160 trees. Most schools don’t have that land,” she said.
She further called for mapping to identify schools with adequate land and for awareness among learners to understand the diversity and value of tree species.

Daniel Juma, Director of the Global Peace Foundation and an environmental enthusiast, suggested that offering incentives or increasing capitation to schools to grow their own seedlings could help achieve the 15-billion-tree goal. He, however, maintained that schools still have idle space that could be utilised.

“Schools have a lot of land lying idle that can be used to plant trees. Then we can achieve more,” he said.
Elizabeth Wathuti, founder and chief executive of the Green Generation Initiative (GGI), said Mazingira Day reflects Kenya’s shifting national priorities but emphasised that what truly matters is consistency.

“Environmental action cannot just be a one-day affair—it must become a culture. The 15-billion-tree initiative is a bold goal, but it will only succeed if every Kenyan takes it as a personal responsibility,” she said.
“We must move beyond ceremonial planting and focus on growing trees—ensuring they survive, thrive, and transform our landscapes.”
Steven Muchiri, Chief Executive Officer of the Eastern Africa Farmers Federation, said the campaign has lost momentum.

“The drive started strong because funding had been promised. When those resources failed to materialise, the effort slowed. Now we don’t even know the numbers or where we stand,” he said.
“We are spending money on new seedlings without tracking how many of the old ones survived. It feels like the left hand is planting trees while the right hand is deforesting every day.”
Across Kenya, forests continue to shrink as new roads, farms, and charcoal operations expand.

George Maina, Strategy Manager at The Nature Conservancy, lauded the President’s leadership but said the government must go further.

“It’s admirable that President Ruto has taken the lead, especially at the primary school level. It instils environmental awareness in pupils,” he said.
“However, the approach must include protection of existing forests, restoration of degraded ecosystems, and better management of forest resources. This will maintain biodiversity, support livelihoods, and address climate impacts.”
Maina added that the initiative’s cost requires external support.

“To achieve the target of planting 2,000 fruit trees in every school, the financial implications are colossal. The government should engage external partners for sustainability,” he said.
The renewed concerns come amid controversy over forest management and deforestation across the country. Karura Forest has recently made headlines following reports of illegal logging, while Ngong Forest was embroiled in a land-grab row involving senior officials allegedly constructing a luxury hotel—now halted after public outcry.

Reports from several counties also point to misuse of public funds allocated for tree planting, including procurement irregularities, ghost seedlings, and inflated budgets.

Civil society watchdogs warn that without transparency and accountability, the 15-billion-tree initiative risks becoming another state-run cash cow—symbolic in ceremony but hollow in execution.

The growing dissonance between government rhetoric and on-the-ground results raises doubts about whether the 15-billion-tree target is rooted in environmental science—or political theatre.

Gitiba warned that without consistent care, the fruit-tree strategy could collapse before it takes root.

“The message has to go beyond slogans,” he said. “Tree growing requires long-term commitment, not one-day events.”