Cabinet shake-up looms as Ruto moves to tighten grip on ODM

President William Ruto is plotting to gain full control of former ODM leader Raila Odinga’s voting bloc at all costs, including reconstituting the government to align with the current political realities in the coming weeks.

He is leaving nothing to chance, including sidelining all so-called renegades in the ODM party who may hinder his efforts of coalition building ahead of the 2027 presidential elections.

Speaking at the burial ceremony of former Prime Minister Raila Odinga in Bondo, President Ruto, who is the party leader of the ruling United Democratic Alliance (UDA), warned that he will not allow anyone to destroy the ODM party.

The statement raised eyebrows among the ODM ranks and file, as fears emerged that he may, in fact, be the one plotting to take over ODM or even merge it with UDA to create his cherished dream of having a monolithic behemoth.

But it is also emerging that he has cast the net much wider and could soon reconstitute his Cabinet to include new faces from Rift Valley, Lower Eastern, and Western as he reconstructs the 2027 elections retention of power matrix.

Three days before his death, Raila called a friend in Nairobi and intimated that changes were going to be made in the broad-based government. Sources also indicated that Raila had been unhappy with one of the Cabinet Secretaries he had seconded for appointment last year.

“I have not been feeling well, but I’m improving now. I will talk to President Ruto so that we can make some changes in government when I come back home,” Raila is reported to have said.

Sources indicate that changes could come as early as next week, although a Rift Valley UDA MP we spoke to thought it may be delayed until the coming by-elections are done.

A few people currently serving in the broad-based government appear to be very vulnerable because they depended on Raila’s goodwill for survival and could now find themselves sidelined.

Two weeks ago, while addressing Kanu delegates at Kabarak in Nakuru County, President Ruto himself pointed out that the government needed more hands and broader goodwill to achieve his transformation agenda.

“I want to ask you, the good people of the founding party, to accept that we work together. Let us have a formal arrangement so that KANU becomes part of an even broader government,” said Ruto.

Political pundits now believe the much-anticipated changes will see some members of the country’s oldest political party joining the broad-based government.

Dr Kenneth Ombongi of the University of Nairobi also thinks the reconstitution of government cannot be ruled out, especially now that one of the principals in the broad-based government is gone.

The reorganisation of government is more likely because the President will need new allies or treat old allies in different ways by demonstrating why he either needs them or not under the current circumstances.

The historian also argues that given the seriousness with which Ruto is addressing issues in Ukambani, it may not be a surprise to see him appoint someone from Kalonzo’s backyard of Kitui or Mwingi into the Cabinet.

The President has also indicated that he will continue working with his predecessor, Uhuru Kenyatta. In January this year, he co-opted three Cabinet Secretaries nominated by Uhuru into his government.

Political pundits also think that Raila’s daughter, Winnie Odinga, will most likely land a Cabinet position. In her speech at the burial, Winnie told President Ruto that she was ready to come back home from her current posting at the East African Legislative Assembly (EALA).

The President has insisted that the coalition he is building is not about serving personal interests but serving the country. “This is not about individuals, personalities, parochialism, or regions. This is about Kenya,” said Ruto in Kabarak.

Former Lugari MP Ayub Savula thinks outspoken ODM leaders like Secretary General Edwin Sifuna will be kicked out as soon as possible because President Ruto will not entertain any interference with what he has achieved with Raila.

“Expect loyal ODM leaders to be the most frequent visitors at the State House from now. President Ruto is going to take control of that party at the State House. He could even finance the party’s much-awaited twentieth-anniversary celebrations and may even be invited to attend as a friend or founder member,” says Savula.

Ombongi also argues that Kenyan politics now is anchored on coalition building and not on ideology — a system the President had earlier frowned upon but has quickly come to master.

Since bringing Musalia Mudavadi (Amani National Congress), Moses Wetang’ula (Ford Kenya), and others into the Kenya Kwanza alliance, he has not looked back. In fact, Musalia’s party has already been dissolved into UDA, making the Prime Cabinet Secretary a mere party member.

There is fear among senior ODM leaders that a similar fate could befall their party now that Ruto has vowed to ensure he is in full control of its destiny.

Speaking during Odinga’s funeral service at the Jaramogi Oginga Odinga University of Science and Technology (JOOUST) on Sunday, Siaya Governor James Orengo cautioned against attempts to dismember ODM and other political parties.

“Let us not kill political parties because they are the foundations of our democracy. Multi-party politics was killed in 1963 after independence, and it took us 30 years to revive it,” cautioned Orengo.

He reminded Kenyans that Raila fought for justice and democracy all his life, including the return of multi-party politics and the new Constitution.

Prof. Peter Kagwanja, President of the Africa Policy Institute, also argues that whereas parties can work together through building winning coalitions, it is unacceptable for leaders to cripple some parties to the advantage of others.

Kagwanja does not object to building broad-based agendas or creating rainbow coalitions where political parties join willingly. He is not opposed to that but is ready to resist the creation of a monolithic political system.

“We fought hard for 24 years to get a more inclusive political order. This is the point that Orengo was making by demanding protection of the democratic space, which was Raila’s legacy. It cost him nine years in detention, at a very big cost for him, his family, and children,” says Kagwanja.

He thinks there is an attempt being made to adopt political tactics and strategies that undermine rather than augment democracy in the country.

The danger of not empowering political parties and members is that people will not be able to make their choices freely without coercion, and the country will return to the dictatorship era of single-party rule.

Kagwanja pleaded that the ODM leadership be allowed to resolve their issues without interference because no political party operates in a straitjacket.

“All political parties have members with either leftist or rightist ideas. People can hold extreme ideas and belong to the same party. Even in the Chinese Communist Party, which you think is monolithic, Deng Xiaoping was on the right side while Chairman Mao Zedong was a leftist,” says Kagwanja.

Youthful ODM MPs Edwin Sifuna, Babu Owino, and Caleb Amisi appear to be reading a different script from the pro-Ruto team of Gladys Wanga, John Mbadi, and Opiyo Wandayi, while Orengo and his Kisumu County counterpart Prof. Anyang’ Nyong’o appear to be taking a more cautious approach.

Kagwanja faults the President’s authoritarian style of lecturing ODM members, urging that people be allowed to speak for themselves instead of getting undemocratic orders from above.

“Even when Baba was there, this same debate was alive, and he handled it well. He never expelled anybody or demonised those who had alternative ideas. People were allowed to think and express themselves. ODM may even disintegrate into a smaller party but become more cohesive,” says Kagwanja.

From his reading, President Ruto intends to take control of ODM MPs to pass bills in Parliament as he uses their numbers to leverage more political support in other parties.

“The better way of doing it is through winning the hearts and minds of people in the party and not threatening them. Charm your way and use soft power to bring all of them together; otherwise, people are going to ask how a UDA leader can dictate ODM affairs.”