Grand coalition: Uhuru's move as opposition seeks to deliver another 2002 moment

The making of a grand coalition in readiness for the 2027 general election is in spin as the opposition comes together seeking to send President William Ruto home.

Former President Uhuru Kenyatta is chairing the Azimio La Umoja One Kenya Coalition Council, with a key agenda being to set up a formula for identifying a single Presidential candidate for the opposition to face his former Deputy in a titanic duel.

The 2002 is the best example of how unity by the opposition can bring change; the overwhelming victory by the NARC Party against ruling KANU came as a result of lessons learnt since the return of the Multi-party system in 1992 within the opposition to apply the same tricks to succeed.

Despite having the numbers, the opposition lost the presidential elections in 1992 because of having multiple strong candidates who split their votes, hence inadvertently gave KANU a chance to narrowly sail through to victory in the first multi-party election.

KANU candidate President Daniel arap Moi won by a mere 36 per cent of the total votes as three main opposition candidates split their 62 per cent vote, with -26 per cent for Kenneth Matiba, 19 per cent for Mwai Kibaki and 17 per cent for Jaramogi Oginga Odinga.

In the 1997 general elections, the opposition lost again to President Moi, who ran away with 40 per cent of the votes, as four leading opposition candidates, Kibaki, Raila Odinga, Kijana Wamalwa and Charity Ngilu split their combined 57 per cent vote.

Come 2002, the opposition parties had learnt their lesson and put their vote in one basket – NARC with Mwai Kibaki as their Presidential candidate emerging victorious with 61.3 percent against KANU candidate Uhuru Kenyatta garnering 31.6 per cent of the vote.

NARC came up as a result of year-long secret parleys with the first consultative meeting by opposition MPs and the civil society taking place in Nairobi in January 2002 with the aim of looking for ways of ending the KANU hold to power for 40 years.

The meeting attended by MPs Mukhisa Kituyi, Moses Wetang’ula and Noah Wekesa from Ford-Kenya, Waithaka Mwangi from Democratic Party and rebel Kanu MP Kipruto Kirwa with civil society represented by Kenya Human Rights Commission Chairman Willy Mutunga.

First summit of the three lead opposition parties was held in Nairobi in May 2002 and attended by Democratic Party Leader Mwai Kibaki, Ford Kenya Leader Kijana Wamalwa and National Party of Kenya Leader Charity Ngilu with the key goal of forging unity among their supporters.

The main issue on the agenda was whether the constituent parties would retain their identities but field a joint candidate or dissolve and come together in one umbrella party with the Kibaki team seeking for the retention of individual identities but was outvoted by the Wamalwa and Ngilu teams, who lobbied for a joint party.

Meanwhile, as the opposition leaders came together charting a common goal on how to approach the 2002 general election, a rebellion was forming in KANU after President Moi unilaterally picked Uhuru as the party’s presidential candidate to the chagrin of other potential candidates.

Kibaki was picked as the National Alliance of Kenya(NAK) opposition presidential candidate, with a rebel group led by Rangwe MP Shem Ochuodho and former Kasipul Kabondo legislator Otieno Kopiyo seeking to have a neutral candidate picked from the civil society overruled.

Meanwhile, the rebellion in Kanu exploded, and Raila together with the ruling party’s key stalwarts bolted out to the Liberal Democratic Party (LDP). The KANU bigwigs who bolted out included Vice President George Saitoti and Cabinet Ministers Joseph Kamotho, Kalonzo Musyoka and William Ntimama.

Former Cabinet Minister Simeon Nyachae had earlier defected to Ford People and declared his intention to run for the presidency and would eventually join the race for 2002, where he finished third behind Kibaki and Uhuru but managed to consolidate votes from his Gusii region.

At the same time, active consultations commenced on the formation of one grand opposition coalition to face KANU, with the formerly NDP wing feeling Raila was entitled to be the flag bearer, having led the rebellion from KANU.

On the other hand, Saitoti felt entitled on account of having been long-serving Vice President, while for some reason, Kalonzo Musyoka also considered himself first among equals and staked a claim for the crown.

Throughout September 2002, many night meetings took place and still no white smoke came out. The meetings attended by representatives from NAK, LDP and Ford People took place at the Nairobi Club and at the residence of Moody Awori, who commanded respect from all parties on account of age.

At a meeting at the Nairobi Club, Kibaki verbally offered to be a one-term president if picked as the joint candidate, with Raila supporting the idea but Nyachae remaining adamant the joint candidate must be picked through the ballot.

The meeting agreed to hold a joint rally at Uhuru Park to seek public views on the matter where out of the blue and to Nyachae’s consternation and anger, Raila made the famous declaration “Kibaki Tosha”, with the crowd applauded the choice.

A day later, a bitter Nyachae announced he would go it alone, and it would later emerge that prior to the meeting before proceeding to Uhuru Park, Raila had met with Kibaki’s people at the Serena Hotel and settled on Kibaki as the preferred opposition Presidential candidate.

The previous evening, Kibaki and Saitoti had been left in a room at Awori’s residence and told not to leave until they agreed between them who would leave it to the other with each one feeling they were entitled on account of having served as Vice President for a decade.

In his first bid to be President in 2002, Uhuru lost to a grand coalition of opposition parties and is now helping craft a grand coalition that seeks to unseat his former Deputy whom he campaigned against during the 2022 election, supporting former Prime Minister Raila Odinga instead.

Wiper Patriotic Front Leader Kalonzo Musyoka, former Deputy President Rigathi Gachagua, Nairobi Senator Edwin Sifuna, Jubilee Deputy Party Leader Fred Matiangi, Democratic Party Leader Justin Muturi and DAP-K Party Leader Eugene Wamalwa are part of this scheme.

Gachagua has stated severally that the opposition will field a single Presidential candidate in the coming election stating that Ruto has been doing everything possible to woe Kalonzo to his side since he knows he is the only threat to his re-election which is not going to work since they have resolved to send him home by uniting.

“I have watched Kalonzo Musyoka’s political journey for the last 15 years and he has come out as a consistent and reliable politician who is capable of leading this country if supported since he has got the necessary experience required to send William Ruto home in 2027 that is why I consider him to be the first among equals in the united opposition,” said Gachagua.

The PLP Leader Martha Karua said early this year that the united opposition is likely to come up with a decision on who their preferred Presidential candidate will be a few months to the coming election stating that at the moment they are each building their parties in order to boost their bargaining powers when the right time comes.

“At the moment each party in the united opposition is working towards building up its structures and setting up its base in preparation for the next general election, at the moment it is too early to say who is going to be our Presidential candidate, that decision will be made at the right time,” said Karua.

Kitui Senator Enoch Wambua, close Kalonzo ally said they are aware there will be several attempts to divide the opposition so that the chances of sending Ruto home are diminished and that they are all aware of the machinations that are being put in place and that they are going to ensure their rivals do not succeed.

Wambua assured Kenyans that the opposition will have one Presidential candidate to take on Ruto that will be agreed upon by all member parties and that if that candidate will be Kalonzo it would be good for the country but at the moment each leader was free to go out and seek for support.

He said that just like during the 2002 general election, the opposition leaders will be called upon to make sacrifices in order to send the Kenya Kwanza regime home and that they have all learnt from experience that unity is strength while divisions will only work for the good of their detractors.

“The United opposition has learnt some valuable lessons from the past elections; that is why this time round we are going to unite and rally behind one strong candidate in order to ensure that we send the Kenya Kwanza regime home since it has failed Kenyans,” said Wambua.

Political Risk Analyst Dismus Mokua said the probability of the United opposition having one presidential candidate has been compromised by Gachagua’s brand of toxic politics, arguing that he is the biggest threat to opposition unity and one united opposition presidential candidate.

“Kalonzo Musyoka, JB Muturi and Fred Matiangi have embraced all-inclusive national politics, while Rigathi Gachagua is still practising and preaching ethnic politics much to the chagrin of Kenyans interested in policy-based politics,” said Mokua.

The Political Risk Analyst said that Gachagua is exposing Kalonzo, Muturi and Matiangi to reputational liabilities and brand dilution and that if they may find it prudent to isolate Gachagua and hit the ground running the better it will be for them.

Mokua said that Gachagua is keen to have a United opposition presidential candidate and leadership that he can manipulate, with his dictatorial tendencies likely to make his peers and 2027 candidates nervous and uncomfortable which may work against the entire team.

“There is a likelihood that Jubilee and DP will gain currency in Mount Kenya region in 2027 as various candidates abandon DCP associated with Gachagua, who has made 2027 candidates develop a phobia since they are not assured of getting tickets,” said Mokua.

enyarangi@standardmedia.co.ke