President William Ruto received by a mammoth crowd in Rongo town, Rongo Sub-County, Migori County on May 5, 2025. The president hit out at the opposition for driving ethnic politics. [Photo by Anne Atieno]
If he stabilises the economy, 2027 election will be Ruto's to lose
Opinion
By
Leonard Khafafa
| Aug 06, 2025
The Constitution mandates that general elections take place every five years on the second Tuesday of August. That means the next national election is due in August 2027 –exactly two years from now. Politics dominates public life in Kenya, so election talk is already heating up, especially around who will challenge incumbent President William Ruto.
Dr Ruto, currently in his first term, has announced he will seek re-election. His presidency began with a narrow win and has faced significant opposition, including frequent protests. Critics accuse him of economic mismanagement, unchecked corruption and lack of meritocracy in public appointments. However, such criticism may overlook the broader economic context.
Ruto inherited an economy under severe strain. The previous administration had borrowed heavily for large infrastructure projects that offered little immediate return. Additionally, the effects of the Covid-19 pandemic and global unrest – particularly in the Middle East and Europe – exacerbated the situation, driving up prices of essentials like food and fuel.
Despite these challenges, Ruto’s administration has made some economic progress. Kenya avoided a debt default by restructuring its debt portfolio – replacing short-term loans with longer-term, low-interest alternatives. Inflation is currently under 4 per cent, which is within the government’s target range and the Kenya shilling has stabilised at
around Sh129 to the US dollar. Foreign exchange reserves are strong and interest rates are falling, making borrowing more attractive for investors.
Ruto has also taken steps to address Kenya’s longstanding issue of unpaid government bills. His administration is using funds from the Road Development Levy Fund to clear some of this debt, enabling contractors to resume stalled infrastructure projects. These developments, if maintained, could improve both public perception and economic performance heading into 2027.
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Still, optics and public perception remain key hurdles. Ruto’s re-election chances may depend on how effectively he reshapes his public image and convinces voters of his administration’s progress. If he succeeds, the presidency may indeed be his to lose.
Meanwhile, the Opposition remains fragmented. Raila Odinga, the longtime opposition leader and Ruto’s main challenger in previous elections, seems to have softened his stance. He has pledged support for the government ostensibly to bring about national stability but possibly signalling a political truce or shift in strategy ahead of 2027.
Rigathi Gachagua, the impeached Deputy President, retains influence in the Mount Kenya region. However, the Constitution bars impeached individuals from running for president. Unless his impeachment is overturned – highly unlikely considering time left to the elections – Mr Gachagua may have to play a behind-the-scenes role as political kingmaker.
The influence of Gen Z in Kenyan politics, particularly through protests and social movements, is notable. However, turning that energy into a viable presidential campaign is unlikely – at least for now. Running for president requires vast financial resources,
grassroots organisation across all 47 counties and a robust campaign infrastructure.
Ruto enters the 2027 race with both challenges and advantages. If he can stabilise the economy and improve public perception, his path to re-election may be relatively clear–especially given the current disorganisation within the Opposition.
Mr Khafafa is a public policy analyst
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