From Saitoti to Kindiki: Raila's quiet eclipse of Kenya's deputies

Several vice and deputy presidents have, over the years, found themselves playing second fiddle to the late ODM leader Raila Odinga — a man whose political manoeuvres repeatedly redrew the country’s power map. This pattern dates back to 2002, starting with the late Prof George Saitoti.

At the time, Saitoti was one of several senior politicians edged out of the succession equation by President Daniel arap Moi, who was planning his retirement from active politics. Among those discarded was the influential, long-serving Kanu Secretary General Joseph Kamotho. His position was taken by Raila after delegates endorsed the merger between Kanu and Raila’s National Development Party (NDP), forming “New Kanu” at a landmark event in Kasarani Stadium on March 18, 2002.

And as time was ticking towards the 2027 election, the ODM leader had again taken centre stage, as President William Ruto’s most senior partner in the broad based government, and the process significantly reducing deputy president Kithure Kindiki’s influence.

From early this year, with the 2027 General Election on the horizon, the Deputy President was increasingly finding himself relegated to the periphery as Raila became more visible at the heart of power.

For nearly three decades, Raila honed the art of behind-the-scenes negotiations, colloquially known as “handshakes”, following disputed elections. These political deals often served to stabilise governments, but routinely destabilised the roles of vice and deputy presidents.

This pattern first emerged in 1997, when Raila joined Moi’s administration and merged his NDP with Kanu. He was subsequently appointed Kanu Secretary-General, enabling him to outmanoeuvre then-Vice President Saitoti.

In his autobiography Riding on a Tiger. Former Vice President Moody Awori writes: “When the National Delegates Conference met in March 2002 at Kasarani, President Moi addressed the delegates and spoke about how Kadu had dissolved itself at independence and joined Kanu.

He then announced a merger between Kanu and NDP and the NDP flag was lowered amidst cheers from the 6,000 delegates.

Consequentially, Saitoti lost his position as the National Vice Chairman and was replaced by four Vice Chairmen, Kalonzo Musyoka, Noah Katana Ngala, Musalia Mudavadi and Uhuru Kenyatta. 

From his reaction, Saitoti appeared not to have known that Raila and a group of young Kanu officials led by Uhuru Kenyatta, William Ruto and Julius Sunkuli had plotted the coup de grace.  “To his horror, Saitoti found that his name had been removed from the list of vice-chairmen he had seen the night before. Saitoti had been Moi’s vice president for as long as Moi had been Kenyatta’s, but despite the recent undermining of his position by State House, Saitoti could not believe that he could be dumped so humiliatingly.

Cameras captured an angry exchange between him and Moi, who told him to “kimya” (shut up). “President Moi told him that Kanu had “its owners”. It was then that Saitoti made his famous statement to the effect that: “There come a time when a country is more important than an individual,” writes Awori.

This public humiliation marked the beginning of the end for many Kanu stalwarts. Eldoret North MP William Ruto, one of the young politicians who helped broker Raila’s entry into Kanu, was appointed party Director of Elections.

In the 2001 Cabinet reshuffle, Raila was named Minister for Energy, while his ally Adhu Awiti — who learned of his appointment while travelling by bus from Kisumu to Nairobi — was made Minister for Planning. But the Kanu-NDP alliance crumbled in 2002 after Moi named Uhuru Kenyatta as his successor, sidelining Raila. Feeling betrayed, Raila led a mass exodus of KANU rebels, including Saitoti, Kalonzo, Awori and Kamotho, to form the National Rainbow Coalition (NARC), which propelled Mwai Kibaki to the presidency.

But the alliance with Moi was short-lived. Raila’s camp accused Kibaki of violating a pre-election memorandum of understanding. The fallout worsened after Raila’s faction campaigned against the 2005 constitutional referendum backed by Kibaki’s government.

This led to the formation of ODM, and Raila’s presidential bid in 2007. When he rejected Kibaki’s re-election, the country plunged into post-election violence. The ensuing crisis was resolved through the National Accord brokered by former UN Secretary-General Kofi Annan, resulting in a Grand Coalition Government. Raila became Prime Minister, sidelining Vice President Kalonzo Musyoka.

In 2009, Raila again clashed with Kalonzo over the leadership of the House Business Committee. Traditionally, the role was reserved for the Vice President, but Raila argued that, as Prime Minister and leader of the party with the majority in Parliament, he should assume the role.

This led to a standoff between ODM and Kalonzo’s ODM-Kenya. Raila publicly insisted: “This seat belongs to ODM and we cannot allow another mistake to occur.” Ruto, then Minister for Agriculture, supported Raila. Eventually, Speaker Kenneth Marende brokered a power-sharing deal that allowed both men on the committee, with Raila taking a lead role.

In 2018, following a disputed 2017 election and a subsequent boycott of the rerun, Raila reached another handshake — this time with President Uhuru Kenyatta. The public truce, declared on the steps of Harambee House, restored political calm, but fractured the relationship between Uhuru and Deputy President Ruto.

Ruto accused the duo of using the Building Bridges Initiative (BBI) to sideline him and derail Jubilee’s development agenda. Many saw the handshake as Raila’s strategic attempt to secure Uhuru’s backing for the 2022 election. Despite receiving that endorsement, Raila lost to Ruto.

Barely two years later, Ruto’s grip on power was tested by a nationwide Gen Z-led uprising sparked by the controversial Finance Bill 2024 and wider governance concerns. In the face of mass protests, Ruto again turned to Raila, inviting ODM into government in what was widely viewed as an attempt to neutralise both the protests and then-Deputy President Rigathi Gachagua.

With ODM’s support, Gachagua was impeached. Kindiki, seen as the natural successor to the deputy presidency, found himself increasingly marginalised as Raila grew more central to governance.

Raila and Ruto soon unveiled a “national conclave” — a proposed dialogue platform, purportedly to engage young people and resolve national crises. Critics argue it was a thinly-veiled strategy to rebuild political capital and manage succession narratives.