Will Gen Z reshape Kenya's power after Raila Odinga?

As they readied for what turned out to be bloody anti-government protests mid last year, a smattering of the youth asked former Prime Minister Raila Odinga to, for once, step back and let them take to the battlefront.

He obliged. Gen Z, a marauding swarm of young people, tumbled into the streets in their hundreds, unleashing havoc across the city, eventually breaching Parliament.

This was unprecedented. The police fired into crowds as protests ran for days. When the gunshots faded away, tens had been killed, even more maimed.

At this point, it was uncertain Odinga would have been an asset in this struggle, especially as he immediately after became, rather scandalously, a beneficiary of the Gen Z uprising when he signed a pact with the president and, consequently, joined the embattled government.

He is, however, not new to the battleground. Odinga was 37 when President Daniel Moi’s government was tested through a coup attempt in 1982, an occurrence which suddenly thrust key orchestrator Hezekiah Ochuka, of The Kenya Air Force, into infamy. Among the key political figures that were implicated were Jaramogi Oginga, the first Vice President of Kenya, and his son Raila.

Odinga was something of a political greenhorn then, but his six-year imprisonment, after he was charged with treason, helped him grow a pretty thick skin and forge for the top position with dogged determination.

He was maimed when young, and he carried some of these scars into old age. Within that time, a lot happened. Odinga’s mother died in 1984 when he was in detention, and he was denied the chance to mourn and bury her, instead only being alerted of the misfortune three months later.

Bad governance

When they released him in early 1988, he was a starry-eyed 43-year-old who, probably realizing that anything could go wrong at any time and terminate his political career, thrust himself into the battlefield with renewed enthusiasm. He was no longer an energetic, jumpy young man.

Odinga was arrested again in September 1988 for his pro-democracy and human rights agitation. Almost a decade later, he had his first stab at the presidency, which he missed.

He would go on to contest four other times, all of which he lost, albeit with claims he was constantly rigged out. Odinga took his chances, battling autocracy for years, and alongside his family, he bore the brunt of wild persecution, which he somewhat took in his stride for years.

Suffice to say he has seen the battle the youth can wage against bad governance, and he understands it better than anyone. He also, probably more than anyone else in Kenya’s political space, has experienced the change of tempo as he grew old and for a long time remained committed to the task of battling sworn megalomaniacs. Or when he had to change tact and join the enemy for what he believed was the bigger, nobler cause. 

For ages, Odinga checked government excesses better than any de jure watchdog. With a snap of his fingers, he commanded Kenyans, mostly the youth, to come out into the streets to agitate for this or that. Although the protests often turned chaotic with vandals overrunning businesses and looting businesses, prompting tragic retaliation by the police, Odinga oftentimes joined the government of the day, promising to clean the rot from within.

By the time he passed on on October 15, Odinga was in the broad-based government, and had forged a dalliance with President William Ruto, who beat him at the polls in 2022. Many faulted him for betraying the course he, and the Gen Z who took to the streets, ought to have believed in.

According to Prof Gitile Naituli, a professor of management and leadership at Multimedia University of Kenya’s Faculty of Business and Law, Raila had become a liability in the Gen Z push; at times an unnecessary obstruction.

Sometimes, his different ideas were out of caution borne out of experience, a need for moderation, which is not particularly the language the Gen Z chose to speak, Prof Naituli says. Especially as he was very influential, he had learnt to temper confrontations.

“There are few leaders with Raila’s ability to inspire people to follow them, whether right or wrong. Without him, the opposition faces an identity crisis. Not merely of leadership but of purpose,” he says.

Prof Karuti Kanyinga, a Research Professor of Development Studies at the Institute for Development Studies (IDS), University of Nairobi, says that Odinga outlived his usefulness for the Gen Z at some point, even as he remained a mercurial figure in national politics.

“The Gen Z do not need Raila anymore. They will fight on their own. Raila was always looking to entrench inclusive politics but from his handshake with the president, it changed, and there were contradictory viewpoints on him starting from that point. The divergence with the youth began right there,” he said.

Widely labelled a traitor after joining the government after last year’s finance bill protests, Odinga, in August, said he had taken a compromise for the sake of the country. At the time, many were campaigning to have Odinga defeated at the ballot as he ran for The African Union Commission (AUC).

New moment

Odinga finally lost to Mahmoud Ali Youssouf, and many on social media celebrated, claiming it was something of a karmic retribution for his betrayal of the Gen Z cause.

The clamour to overhaul government, which led to incessant demonstrations along the streets of major cities in Kenya, birthed youth leaders, in spite of claims the movement was leaderless, tribeless, and partyless. Some soon hobbled into the old political parties amid strong ridicule, and soon the protests had disappeared. When the dust settled, Odinga’s faction was solidly in government, supporting key ideals they had previously distanced themselves from and seemingly endorsing the current regime just two years ahead of the next general elections.  

Prof Gitile Naituli believes Odinga’s sudden departure could usher in a new political moment, reigniting the youthful defiance that once shook President Ruto’s administration.

“He was charismatic and influenced people greatly. Now, the youth may be uncontrollable and could go all the way to overturn the government. With Raila out of the way, you cannot stop what happened in June’s anti-finance bill protests from recurring. It was his handshake that stopped it. He took advantage and got into government, and no one else can do that,” he says.

Naituli warns that Odinga’s loyal supporters, who followed him into government out of blind allegiance, could face a rude awakening. President Ruto, he adds, may have a turbulent period ahead.

“Gen Z now have the chance for the change they wanted. Dr Ruto must run a clean government because real change may emerge from his own diehard followers who now find themselves in power,” he notes

As the country looks toward 2027, uncertainty lingers. Could the wave of youthful protesters that has toppled governments in countries like Nepal and Madagascar happen in Kenya?

“That already happened,” observes Prof Karuti Kanyinga. “The Kenyan government collapsed in 2024 when the president had to appoint a new Cabinet. The airport and Parliament breaches after Raila’s death showed a people who cannot be stopped, even by bullets. These are symbolic events.”

As the nation mourns, many celebrate Odinga’s lifetime of fighting for good governance. Yet critics fault him for occasionally “dining with the oppressor.” Still, most agree he laid the path for a new generation determined to secure their future.

Whether seen as a freedom fighter or a flawed statesman, Raila Odinga remains one of Kenya’s most consequential political figures, “more mirror than mystery,” as writer Patrick Gathara describes him, “the personification of Kenya’s tragedy.”