Why Ruto-Raila will be upset with Mulembe political shift

The big shift that is taking place in Luhya politics should be a cause for worry to president William Ruto, his broad based ally Raila Odinga, plus Kenya Kwanza confidants Speaker Moses Wetangula and Prime Cabinet Secretary Musalia Mudavadi.

The vitality, drive and aliveness with which both pro and anti-establishment politicians from Western Kenya have ganged up to take on President Ruto’s government is astounding but it should worry his Kenya Kwanza administration that the dissent is growing even bigger.

Political pundits now estimate that his support in the region could have nosedived to as low as 10 percent, when barely three years ago, he managed to garner majority of the votes in Bungoma and Trans-Nzoia, plus in Kakamega where he also performed fairly well.

And leaders supporting him like Speaker Moses Wetangula and Prime Cabinet Secretary Musalia Mudavadi are also on the receiving end of the backlash, especially after the establishment of the Broad Based government by president Ruto and ODM leader Raila Odinga, which the duo also support.

“The Musalia, Wetangula, Raila axis will hardly deliver 10 percent of the vote to Ruto in the former western province. Their support has received a severe beating and is going down every other day,” says political analyst Martin Andati.

But in another twist, it appears Mudavadi and Wetangula are not just sitting pretty. The latter is rumoured to have used proxies to register a new party barely a year after he wound up Amani National Congress (ANC) to join president Ruto’s United Democratic Alliance (UDA), while the latter is also on a damage limitation mission.

ODM and Kenya Kwanza MPs supposed to be in the Broad Based government are pulling towards a different direction and appear to be resonating with Trans Nzoia governor George Natembeya’s agitation for a new beginning in the region’s political orientation.

READ: Why Rift Valley region values the Ruto-Raila political pact

From the look of things, the old political order is crumbling down with a heavy thud and the casualties will most likely be those in Raila Odinga’s ODM, Wetangula’s Ford Kenya and President Ruto’s UDA parties.

So far, some disgruntled MPs in UDA have dumped the party, although they are still keeping Kenyans guessing over their next destination. Sources, however indicate that there is something big cooking. Some like Senate Majority Chief Whip Bonny Khalwale (UDA) have already announced that a new party is in the offing.

Natembeya’s supporters are also loudly urging him to dump Eugene Wamalwa’s DAP-K and urgently form his own party to not only rally the region together into one direction, but to also cater for thousands of youth supporting his first growing Tawe Movement.

“Natembeya came in with unconventional politics and completely dismantled the old order that revolved around Wetangula, Raila and Mudavadi. He is speaking the language of the masses. He is charismatic and has the courage. That is what people are looking for in a leader,” adds Andati.

He thinks out of desperation, a deliberate campaign is being waged against him by the government intelligence apparatus that could be sponsoring and hiring politicians to attack him at political rallies in Trans Nzoia and on Tik Tok through corruption allegations and insults. 

But apart from Natembeya, another group led by Nairobi Senator Edwin Sifuna is also raising eyebrows. Others include Jack Wamboka (Bumula), Majimbo Kalasinga (Kabuchai), Godfrey Osotsi (Vihiga) and Caleb Amisi (Saboti). Busia Senator Okiya Omutata is also pushing his own agenda.

READ: Kingpin politics splits Western leaders, threatens push for Luhya unity

Among issues that have created a big wedge among leaders include, the hiring out of Nzoia Sugar Company to Jaswant Rai and opposing government business like the 2024/2025 Finance Bill in parliament which led to the Gen Z protests. Working with Natembeya is also deemed as being anti-government.

Nairobi politician Philip Kisia has also warned that the Luhya community will no longer blindly support other communities starting from the 2027 presidential elections. He says they will chart their own future because their numbers count.

“The Luhya community must recognize the fact they are number two in population but their numbers are deliberately reduced. They are number two officially but in reality they could be the largest voting group in the country,” says Kisia.

The former Nairobi Town Clerk, also argues that apart from a few leaders like Masinde Muliro, Martin Shikuku, Wamalwa Kijana and Elijah Mwangale who genuinely fought for the people’s interests, the current crop is led by individualistic people minding about their stomachs.

He claims that those leading from the front now still believe in using the old tactics of dividing and ruling the community, but they will now be stopped and buried politically because the reality is that things will never be the same again.

Kisia further laments that the entire Luhya nation has been deprived of resources and development, while professionals and highly qualified people from the region have either been removed or demoted.

“We are told that Musalia is number three in the executive and Wetangula is the head of the legislature but when we talk to them in private, they also acknowledge that we were shortchanged. They just have to create room for others to lead the community,” says Kisia.

But as earlier stated, Mudavadi is said to be behind a new party and it is the recently registered Democratic National Alliance (DNA), although he denies any involvement, terming the claims baseless and reaffirming his commitment to the UDA merger.

Asked last week, Mudavadi told TV viewers that if he wanted to join another party he would do it like he did with the ANC – UDA merger. As far as he is concerned, ANC delegates made a decision through a party resolution and all procedures were followed when his party collapsed.

Registered officials of the nascent DNA include columnist and writer Barack Muluka (Secretary General), who coincidentally was the ANC Secretary General from November 2017 to August 2020 when resigned for not very clear reasons. Godfrey Kanoti who is also from the Luhya subtribe like Muluka is listed as the DNA party leader.

Wetangula is also fighting his critics like Natembeya and Kalasinga using Kenya Kwanza attack dogs Trans Nzoia Woman Rep Lillian Siyoi, Senator Allan Chesang and Kiminini MP Kakai Bisau. In Bungoma, he has enlisted county assembly members to take on alleged detractors.

He for example is allegedly grooming a member of the Bungoma County Assembly to un-sit Majimbo Kalasinga from the Kabuchai seat in the 2027 parliamentary elections. During the fundraising presided over by Sifuna in Kabuchai two weeks ago Majimbo claimed Wetangula is plotting his political demise.

“The people of Kabuchai are my bosses and their voice is supreme. Let it be known that no party however mighty can defeat the will of the people. Wetangula’s wicked scheme is doomed to fail,” said Majimbo.

Meanwhile Sifuna is also generating a lot of scrutiny from political analysts because he has not only openly opposed president Ruto’s 2027 re-election bid and the Broad based government, but is angling more towards the anti-Wetangula-Mudavadi- Raila axis in the region.

Very few ODM leaders can be as daring to oppose a position so strongly supported by party leader Raila Odinga. Political analyst Martin Andati says it will not be a surprise if Sifuna runs and wins the Nairobi gubernatorial seat in 2027.

“He may not necessarily be in ODM and that is why every move taken by these outspoken Luhya leaders is generating a lot of interest. Watch out for Sifuna, he may run for Governor or still go for the Senate and then resign to join government in 2027,” says Andati.

Another agitated politician is Khalwale who says someone from high up called and warned him to stop asking the government questions because he is a majority Chief Whip who is driving around in a government vehicle, which he denies having.

“I have refused to accept that Luhya’s don’t count. I’m saying that in 2027. Abana ba Abaluhya will be counted and known. Whoever thinks Luhya’s will not be on the table is mistaken. I learned from Kijana Wamalwa to respect my seniors. I have respected Mudavadi and Wetangula enough and they should also yield space,” said Khalwale last week.

Sources says Khalwale wanted to join Eugene Wamalwa’s DAP-K but the latter feared the former could abandon the party as he did when they were together in the now defunct New Ford Kenya, which was formed after Wetangula wrestled Ford Kenya from them.

“He is now trying to see if he can work with Natembeya but he also has an alternative party called United Patriots Movement (UPM), he owns with others like former Machakos Senator Johnson Muthama,” says Anadati.

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There is also some fast growing tension between Eugene and Natembeya because the former feels he is a senior politician, having served as Cabinet Minister in two governments and as MP for 12 years. The bitter reality however is the governor has upstaged him and could even be the popular choice of running mate should Wiper leader Kalonzo be picked to take on president Ruto in 2027.

Andati argues that Eugene doesn’t have the numbers just like Mudavadi because they have not done any serious ground work in the region unlike Natembeya who has managed to cover a lot if ground in the short period that he has been in politics.

It appears Raila also has a lot of work to do, that is if he still interested in vying for presidency. He may find it difficult to recover lost ground and that is why his name is featuring in all political debates and rallies convened by politicians across the region.

“Mimi nimejipanga mtu asikudanganye. Chama ya ODM kwa miakia 20 imekuwa mzuri. (I’m ready. ODM party was good for 20 years) The problem is when Baba gets our votes he rushes to meet whoever wins, gets goodies and takes them to his people in Nyanza,” said Khalwale to a cheering crowd in Butere.

The MP who appears to be siding with Natembeya, urged the area MCA to abandon ODM, just like he will also ditch presdent Ruto’s UDA that has denied the region development opportunities. He also told supporters that corruption claims against Natembeya are a political witch hunt.

“When they arrested him, I expected to see big headlines of the millions he had stolen, only to be told that he had not accounted for only Sh1.2 million, which the governor said was his imprest. Oooh! What a shame to this government,” said Khalwale.