How Raila Odinga held ODM together and its members in line

Even before he was buried, the void Raila Odinga left in the Orange Democratic Movement (ODM) party, as well as in Kenya’s politics, had been felt.

At a funeral service in Bondo, ODM politicians fought over what the former prime minister’s last wish about supporting President William Ruto’s re-election bid had been, even as they preached against division.

Most of those who spoke were Ruto’s sympathisers, and they swore allegiance to the Head of State, to whom they said Raila had guided them to join the Ruto government.

They included National Assembly Minority Leader Junet Mohamed and Homa Bay Governor Gladys Wanga, and the five cabinet secretaries Raila seconded to Ruto’s cabinet.

Nairobi Senator Edwin Sifuna emerged as the lone opposing voice to the seemingly choreographed capitulation to Ruto that was unfolding, warning that it violated Raila’s last wish of preparing ODM for the next elections.

Such fights, which also feature fence sitters, are likely to play out in the coming weeks and months, as ODM finds its feet after the shock of Raila’s passing.

These wrangles were commonplace when Raila was alive. Complete with threats mostly directed at anti-Ruto politicians, the fights were equally scathing.

The only difference, this time, is that there is no one to tame the tensions.

Raila, very much more than the glue that has kept ODM together for 20 years, played that role. A role that was more than a peacemaker’s. He kept everyone in line, after he had let them vent.

This was on display during the burial of former Kasipul MP Ong’ondo Were in May, where different factions clashed over ODM’s support of the ‘broad-based’ government Ruto set up in July last year, which included the late former premier’s allies as cabinet and principal secretaries.

The former prime minister pleased with both sides by clarifying that while the party had an arrangement with the Kenya Kwanza administration and supported its members in the Cabinet, the relationship was pegged on a 10-point agenda, and that there was no commitment to supporting Ruto’s re-election in 2027.

At the time, questions swirled about whether ODM would be able to survive internal wrangles. Weeks earlier, Raila’s spokesperson Dennis Onyango issued a statement saying that Raila was following the debate “with keen interest.”

He said the relevant party organs would harmonise the diverse views and emerge with a common position, which would eventually be that ODM stays put within the broad-based government until 2027, but there was no agreement on supporting Ruto’s re-election.

Similar questions about ODM’s survival have emerged since Raila’s death more than a week ago, with some of its politicians saying it was too early for such an assessment.

ODM’s survival depends on a myriad of factors, the most immediate of which is Oburu Oginga’s handling of the party his younger brother built over the last 20 years.

Oburu, who is the Siaya Senator, was handed the party leader role, in what Dismas Mokua, a political risk analyst, argued was the “lack of a succession plan” in ODM.

“Raila, either by omission or commission, did not create a succession plan,” he said.

On Friday, a host of delegates from his Nyanza backyard converged in Bondo, pushed to have the 82-year-old made ODM’s substantive leader.

ODM has traditionally comprised politicians with extreme views on different subjects, who have often clashed. The establishment of the broad-based government led to a split within the party, resulting in the emergence of two factions: ODM-in-government and ODM-in-opposition.

The former group mostly featured Raila’s allies from his native Nyanza backyard, many of whom interpreted the truce to mean an endorsement of Ruto’s re-election bid.

Besides Oburu, Junet and Wanga, other vocal lawmakers from this faction include Homa Bay Town MP Peter Kaluma and Alego-Usonga MP Samuel Atandi.

This faction, which is backed by most of the five cabinet secretaries poached from ODM as “experts,” is already plotting to kick out dissenting voices from the party, as Mining Cabinet Secretary Hassan Joho threatened on Sunday in Bondo.

The ODM-in-opposition cohort includes Sifuna, ODM’s secretary-general; Embakasi East MP Babu Owino; Saboti MP Caleb Amisi; Kitutu Chache South MP Antoney Kibagendi and Kisii Senator Richard Onyonka.

The  MPs are part of an opposition coalition they call Kenya Moja, which brings together youthful politicians eager to break from the past.

The two factions, constantly at loggerheads, experts argued, enjoyed Raila’s blessings, as both sides expressed their views passionately in Raila’s presence with no repercussions.

People like Oburu and Junet would promise Ruto support as Sifuna denounced the Head of State.

It was nearly impossible to decide which side spoke for the former prime minister, as he would keep close to both

Oburu was Raila’s confidant and was involved in his late brother’s every political move, such as the secret handshake with former President Uhuru Kenyatta in 2018 and a later one with Ruto. So was Junet. On the other hand, Sifuna spoke on behalf of the party, and Raila confirmed this.

But the divide was, indeed, real, resulting in charged meetings of the party’s top brass. Raila was the bridge between the divide, a role that now falls on Oburu’s doorstep. Playing this part, undoubtedly, will require a drastic shift. How he navigates the divisions, experts said, could determine ODM’s survival.

From the outset, it seems likely that Oburu will lead his troops to Ruto, as his allies pledged loyalty to the broad-based arrangement during the Friday meeting in Bondo.

The Siaya senator has often favoured teaming up with Ruto in the next polls, with Raila disowning this position at one of his final public engagements.

Oburu is very much the hardliner who required checking by Raila. In recent months, he favoured the radical move of getting rid of those he did not agree with, when his brother insisted on keeping the party passionately democratic in his sunset.

“Raila was the glue holding the party together. Party rank and file pledged loyalty not to the party but to Raila. Nobody within the party ranks has capacity and competence to fill Raila’s shoes,” said Mokua. “But the probability does exist that ODM politicians will identify a ranking member to align ODM divergent views with the sole intention of minimising the probability of a split.”

ODM’s politicians are sending mixed signals about how they will walk into the future. In Bondo on Sunday, most preached unity.

“This is not the time to push divisive narratives in ODM,” said Sifuna. “As leaders, we must show unity so that our party’s members can follow our lead. I will do everything to keep this party united, even in the face of open provocation.”

Wanga, ODM’s chairperson, said that while Raila’s absence had denied the party a person they would consult on different issues, the party should remain focused.

“We must ask ourselves, in any situation, what would Baba do?” Wanga said. “Faced with a decision of the unity of the country or division, what would Baba do?”

But threats like Joho’s about kicking out unspecified dissenters cast doubt on whether the factions can rise above their divisions and stay united.

“They are already showing that they are incapable of holding the party together,” said Herman Manyora, a university lecturer and political analyst. “There is every danger that ODM will be split along tribal lines.”

He said democracy would suffer if ODM were to rupture, as well as Raila’s legacy, as the country would be losing the “product of Raila’s blood and sweat.”

“It would expose our politics for what it is – tribal,” said Manyora.

The stakes could not be higher for the second-largest party in Kenya, which boasts support across large swathes of the country. In Nyanza, a host of politicians are already jostling to succeed Raila. A split among them could potentially send the region’s votes to different baskets.

After slumping gradually since 2007, ODM’s support in the Western region marginally increased in 2022. Cutting off the region’s politicians, such as Sifuna, could mean the party’s fortunes there dwindle. Indeed, a host of ODM politicians from Western recently threatened to ditch ODM if Sifuna were to be ousted.

The emergence of two potential presidential candidates in Kisii – former Chief Justice David Maraga and Fred Matiang’i – complicates the arithmetic for ODM in the area.

The Coast region, where Raila enjoyed immense support, could be a low-hanging fruit for other politicians in his absence. Nairobi, the cosmopolitan capital of Kenya, could witness a shift in political dynamics.

ODM is not new to splits. A failure by Raila to keep allies after subsequent elections saw him lose ground in different areas. Losing Ruto to Uhuru cost him the 2013 election, as did the fact that Prime Cabinet Secretary Musalia Mudavadi deserted him to contest the presidency in that year.

Ahead of the 2022 polls, Mudavadi would ditch Raila again. National Assembly speaker Moses Wetang’ula’s departure dented Raila’s fortunes in Bungoma, arguably costing him the presidency.

Ruto’s chances of re-election, according to Mokua, the political risk analyst, also depend on whether ODM stays united.

“Mr Odinga had indicated that ODM will have a presidential candidate during the 2027 presidential elections. It may be the case that the candidate Mr Odinga had in mind is President Ruto. It is therefore in President Ruto’s interest to ensure that ODM politicians sustain a united front,” he said.