Which African teams will fight their way to the knockout stage?

Nine days into the biggest World Cup ever staged, the continent is no longer a footnote. Ten African nations made the trip to North America, double the number Qatar allowed four years ago, and the next fortnight will decide which of them get to keep dreaming. 

By June 27, every African side will have played its final group match. A week later comes the brand-new Round of 32, the first extra-knockout round in World Cup history, born of the leap to 48 teams.

I watched the opening clashes among ardent fans, everyone wondering who actually has the stomach for this stage. 

Start with the story that set the tone for the whole tournament.  DR Congo’s Leopards arrived in Houston,USA having reached this World Cup the hard way, grinding past Nigeria on penalties before snatching a stoppage-time winner against Jamaica. 

An Ebola scare had disrupted their preparations, and Congo was at a World Cup for the first time since 1974, when the country still played as Zaire. None of that mattered against Cristiano Ronaldo’s Portugal. Jo’o Neves headed the Europeans ahead inside five minutes, and the script looked written.

Instead, Yoane Wissa equalised at half-time, and Congo spent the second half stalking Portugal’s midfield like a predator that refused to be told it didn’t belong. 

The final whistle confirmed it: a 1-1 draw, Congo’s first-ever point at a World Cup finals. They carry that nerve into a final group match against Uzbekistan, knowing a win sends them into the Round of 32 for the first time in their history. 

South Africa’s tournament opened with a harsher lesson. They lost their first match in Mexico City with two red cards, the most in a single World Cup match in history, finishing with nine men in a 2-0 defeat to the co-hosts. Their campaign now swings on a must-not-lose finale against South Korea after the the 1-1 draw against Czechia on Thursday, all too familiar for a side yet to escape the first round in three tries. 

Morocco remains the continent’s reference point and, under new coach Mohamed Ouahbi, hungrier than ever. Four years removed from their fairy-tale Qatar semi-final run, the Atlas Lions walked into MetLife Stadium against five-time champions Brazil and, for 20 minutes, looked the better side. 

Ismael Saibari’s clipped finish put Morocco ahead before Vinicius Junior levelled it before half-time. A 1-1 draw with Brazil is no consolation prize; it is a marker laid down by a coach who refuses to settle for nostalgia. “I want to go beyond the semi-finals.”

Ouahbi told reporters afterwards, and nobody who watched that opening half-hour would call it an idle boast. Their final group fixture against Haiti looks straightforward on paper, but this tournament has shown that nothing can be taken for granted. 

The rest of the contingent has produced a mixed ledger. Ivory Coast, winners against Ecuador, face a sterner test against Germany today. Tomorrow brings a triple shift: Tunisia, reeling from a 5-1 mauling by Sweden and a coaching change, tries to respond against Japan; Egypt, patient in a 1-1 draw with Belgium, meets a resilient New Zealand; and Cape Verde, a nation of barely half a million people still floating on the high of holding Spain goalless, faces two-time champions Uruguay.

Ghana, which snatched a stoppage-time win over Panama through substitute Caleb Yirenkyi, close out against Croatia. 

Senegal, undone by a Kylian Mbappé double, and Algeria, beaten as Lionel Messi scored his first World Cup hat-trick, each have one match left to salvage campaigns that class has punished hard. 

By June 27, the picture will be far clearer. The top two in each of the 12 groups advance automatically, joined by the eight best third-placed sides, a net wide enough that a difficult group need not be fatal, but narrow enough that discipline now matters enormously. 

The Round of 32 that follows, forced into existence by the jump to 48 teams, means win-or-go-home football arrives earlier than ever before. For African sides who have spent decades exiting at the group phase, reaching that stage would already rewrite history, before the bracket narrows toward the July 19 final at MetLife Stadium. 

How far can Africa go once the real business begins? Morocco remains the continent’s best bet to match or surpass 2022, provided it arrives at the Round of 32 with momentum rather than relief. 

Ivory Coast and Egypt have the defensive steel for a deep run if they find a cutting edge in front of goal. Congo and Cape Verde have exceeded expectations by being competitive, and reaching the Round of 32 would now be a bonus. 

For Tunisia, Senegal, Algeria, South Africa and Ghana, the road runs through results that demand far more conviction than shown so far. 

And then there is the ache underneath all of this for those of us watching from home. 

Kenya is not in the United States, Mexico or Canada, and every dazzling Congolese tackle, every Ghanaian late winner, every Cape Verdean save, lands with a bittersweet edge for Harambee Stars fans who know how close their own team was to being part of this conversation. 

Kenya finished fourth in a brutal Group F, having held African champions Ivory Coast to a goalless draw before being outclassed 3-0 in Abidjan. Watching Cape Verde, a nation smaller in population than Nakuru County, hold Spain to a draw is a sharp lesson in that fearlessness costs nothing and what a packed home stadium can still be worth.

But self-pity has never built a football nation, and it will not build one now. The lesson radiating out of this tournament is unmistakable: the African sides making noise are playing without fear and managing their moments; Congo holding nerve against Ronaldo; Ghana finding a winner in the dying seconds; Cape Verde refusing to be intimidated by Spain’s name on the shirt.

Kenya’s real reckoning is not 2026; it is 2027, when the Africa Cup of Nations arrives on home soil shared and every excuse about playing away from our own fans disappears.

Watch how Morocco, Ivory Coast, Egypt, Congo and Cape Verde carry themselves once football stops being forgiving.

Kenya’s football administrators would do well to take notes while the rest of Africa writes this chapter without us.

sports@standardmedia.co.ke