Why 2027 polls must be all about the economy

The echoes of the 2022 polls are still reverberating, yet we have started hearing the drumbeats of the 2027 polls.

Political leaders are positioning themselves for the next election, likely to be full of drama, intrigue and hopefully no violence.

The last year has had enough violence. We should not normalise violence. Are we not an “elderly” country now, 60-plus years old? Which 60-year-old elder is still violent even in their own home?  

Why are we beating election drums so early? Some could say it’s even late. Politicians started beating them after the poll results were announced.

Political leaders are master strategists, long-term gamers. Behind their noise lies a more basic truth: they are forever plotting for the next polls. 

That is why they love audiences (voters) even at funerals. Why don’t they visit maternity wards to welcome the next generation of voters?  

Political leaders now have two key worries: one is the unpredictable electorate, and two, money.

I guess money is not an issue for 2027. There is enough of it. Do not ask me why I am so convinced. 

The bigger worry is whether the money will work and sway the voters. Many think so, with a majority of voters living from hand to mouth.

Curiously, money given to voters during polls is considered a blessing, not a curse.  And many voters say it’s their money!  

A country needs a relatively affluent and mature electorate to say no to handouts. That’s why some pundits suggest economic growth should come before democracy.

It’s unlikely the current state of the economy will give us such an electorate before 2027. We can, therefore, safely conclude that money will be a factor, potentially making the 2027 polls very expensive. It is unlikely that Karl Marx’s observation that poor people are like bags of potatoes will cease to hold true.  

The 50/50 division in our polls makes campaigning very expensive. The contestants know a small mistake will cost them a victory.

They leave nothing to chance. That is why some strategists feel a third force would make the 2027 polls more “manageable.” 

But there is a new twist to using money to influence voters: Gen Z. Will they say no to money?

If they do, that would be a watershed in Kenyan politics; any political leader’s worst nightmare.

What alternative will contestants use to sway voters? Issues? New ideas? Fear? Violence?   

So far, Gen Z protests have upset all political predictions. Could they be the third force? Political leaders are so unprepared for Gen Z and have tried to “tribalise” them.  

That does not seem to have gotten enough traction. Our political leaders are adept at working with tribal blocs, very predictable in their voting patterns. Gen Z is the opposite, though we don’t have their voting track record.  

The addition of a new tribe, Gen Z, has sent politicians back to the drawing board. With so many Technical and Vocational Education and Training (TVET) institutions, a drawing board is no rarity. Our political strategists could avoid drawing boards and use Artificial Intelligence (AI). They will not be pioneers. 

I keep asking why Gen Z keeps us awake; we should have seen it coming through higher literacy levels, 24-hour access to information, globalisation and freedoms enshrined in the 2010 Constitution. The unmet economic expectations have earned this tribe more members. Have you noted how we make the best friends in adversity?   

Will the Independent Electoral and Boundaries Commission (IEBC) ensure Gen Z’s votes count?

The use of an ID or passport only in voting makes sense. Should voting not be as easy as possible?

Some suggest missing an ID is less of a worry in 2027. The biggest worry is the use of “non-institutional” forces to change the voting patterns.

Such forces could make fear the lynchpin of the much-awaited polls. In whispers, just watch how the recent protests were “managed.” 

The use of “non-institutional forces” should be avoided by all means. Kenyans, disappointed by the economy and politics, should be allowed to exhale in 2027.

Remember the movie Waiting to Exhale? Food for thought: why do we hear less nowadays of “external influences” like the International Monetary Fund (IMF), envoys and civil society?  

Enough on 2027 (read general election). How about the economy? Kenya Kwanza’s (KK) victory was partly based on economic promises.

It was premised that a victory for KK would usher in Kenya’s economic golden age. Some boldly suggest this vision was spiced up with some utopianism, promising more like communism. 

Hustlers (ordinary folk) would become sonkos, and dynasties would become part of our popular history or folklore. It was a great narrative.

The reality turned out differently. No serious economist would have expected a Damascus moment so soon; voting and economic growth are very different games.  

Clearly, the state of the economy will be an issue in the 2027 polls. Why?  It’s unlikely an economic turnaround will take place in the next two years.  

Expect spirited explanations on why things did not turn out as expected-economically. Possible scapegoats will be external: Ukraine, the Iran-Israel war, and the weather.

Internally, Gen Z protests and “unpatriotic” Kenyans will take the blame. But Kenyans are getting enlightened.  

You will also hear, we gave the economy first aid, now expect a surgery after 2027. Shall voters believe that?

Those in the government will.

The rest will need a lot of convincing. One worry over 2027 is a group of politicians who feel the government is “theirs” and shouldn’t be allowed to slip away.   

Free advice to KK: a well-targeted economic stimulus package would bear fruit by 2027 and trickle down to the hoi polloi. An economic turnaround would better campaign platform than a packet of excuses. 

Will the KK government focus on the economy as 2027 beckons, or inundate us with a political blitzkrieg?  I am sure they can recall that they promised or overpromised. 

What of the much-muted opposition? Will it come up with a better economic plan to outdo the hustler narrative or give us a new one?

Political slogans are very hard to recycle. Clearly, 2027 and the economy are Siamese twins. 

Hopefully, Kenyans have learnt a major lesson: polls come and go, but the economy remains.