Why electric vehicles are key for Kenya's industrial and energy landscape transformation

Localisation remains key if the country is to unlock the full promise of electric mobility. The EV sector is not a theoretical opportunity anymore, it is here, and it aligns with three urgent national priorities: creating jobs, improving public health, and strengthening the fiscal base.

But if we are to succeed, localization must be framed more broadly than just assembling vehicles. For nearly 40 years, the real disruptor of Kenya’s auto industry has been second-hand imports, now over 80% of the market. EVs are not the enemy—they are the lever to transform both our industrial and energy landscape.

Every EV on the road consumes locally generated power for its entire lifetime, displacing imported fossil fuels that drain our foreign reserves. Kenya already generates over 90% of its electricity from renewable sources, with significant surplus capacity during off-peak hours. EV adoption can absorb that idle clean energy, spur new investment into green generation, and—critically—help lower energy costs for households, businesses, and manufacturers alike. In this sense, energy itself should be considered “local content.”

The benefits extend beyond economics. Shifting even 10% of new vehicle registrations to EVs would sharply cut urban air pollution, reduce noise on our streets, and unlock consumer savings through lower operational costs. This is industrialization and environmental health working hand in hand.

To truly compete, however, Kenya must pivot assembly efforts toward areas where the opportunity curve is steepest—"chargers, battery packs, and key EV components". These technologies are scalable, transferrable, and well-suited to building regional value chains. From there, we can graduate into low-volume commercial EVs and eventually passenger cars.

Policy must align across three fronts:

• Fiscal incentives - that prioritize newer, cleaner models while penalizing older imports through inverted taxation.
• Innovative financing - that makes locally assembled EVs affordable through lower deposits, fairer rates, and longer tenures.
• Energy and industrial policy integration - ensuring EV adoption pulls demand for both green power and local manufacturing.

Localisation of energy as local content

Kenya’s current competitive advantage is clear: we generate over 90% of our electricity from renewable sources. This is a foundation most countries envy. Add to that a youthful, educated population hungry for opportunity, and it’s evident that the path to prosperity lies in creating jobs, both formal and informal, anchored in affordable energy. For most of these jobs, the cost of electricity is the single biggest input.

That is why, as we discuss “local content” in the automotive industry, we must broaden the definition. It cannot only be about parts and assembly. Renewable, locally generated power is itself local content.

Let’s agree on this: importing Fully Built Units (FBUs) exports jobs to the source markets. But so too does importing fossil fuels. The critical difference is that every EV—whether locally assembled or imported fully built—runs on 100% locally generated power. That translates into local jobs not only in the auto sector, but also across manufacturing, services, and the wider economy.

Here is the scale of what this means. Scenario B (medium) shows the potential within the next 5–7 years:

• 50,000 passenger cars would consume about 187.5 GWh/year.
• 500,000 electric motorcycles would add another 500 GWh/year.
• 5,000 electric buses and trucks would contribute roughly 500 GWh/year.

Together, that is \~1.19 TWh annually, or about three times the energy Kenya currently curtails from its grid. After absorbing today’s wasted 300–400 GWh, EV growth would require 120–150 MW of new clean generation capacity. That is not a burden, it is an opportunity. EV adoption becomes the engine that pulls new geothermal, wind, and solar projects to market, creating a self-reinforcing cycle of cheaper energy and stronger industrial competitiveness.

By treating "green energy as local content", EVs give us a double win: they secure jobs in the automotive value chain while simultaneously anchoring new employment in energy, industry, and services. This is how localization and electrification, working together, can transform Kenya’s economy.