Letter from Mogadishu: Somalia President in shuttle diplomacy

Ethiopian Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed and the country’s capital Addis Ababa were busy this week playing host to two Somali leaders in what is shaping to be a realignment of the politics and alliances in the Horn of Africa.

The first to arrive in Addis Ababa on Sunday was the President of Somalia, Hassan Sheikh Mohamud. On his departure on Monday, the president of the breakaway republic of Somaliland, Abdirahman Mohamed Abdillahi Irro checked in a few hours later for what was described as high-level talks with the Ethiopian prime minister.

While president Mohamud described his visit as aimed at strengthening bilateral relations between his country and Ethiopia there was a deeper reason for the Somalia leader to make this undisclosed trip just days after he had held a similar meeting with the Jubbaland president Ahmed Mohamed Islam Madobe.

The trip to Addis by the Somali leader had everything to do with Somalia’s internal power politics. It should be recalled that the meeting between Mohamud and Madobe in Kismayu on October 5 was tension packed and failed to address the issues on the table.

The issues on the table for the Kismayu meeting included the resolution of deep divisions over Jubbaland’s election, the regional presidency, Mohamud’s controversial constitutional amendment project and its unilateral push for a one-person, one-vote system.

The sticking point for the president of Somalia is the sudden interest by Ethiopia in Jubbaland affairs by opposing Mogadishu’s plans to set up a parallel administration in Gedo region which is part of the federal state. The Gedo region borders Ethiopia.

Ethiopia views the plan by the government of Somalia to create a rival administration in Gedo region as a threat to its national security. To show its strength, Addis Ababa recently sent military and intelligence officials to the Somali border town of Dollow.

Kenyans will recall that last month, north eastern Kenya and Mandera county in particular was abuzz with claims of foreign forces having crossed into Kenya and breached our sovereignty and security.

At the centre of the conflict was the control of Gedo region’s main town Beled Hawo and the main player Abdirashid Janan former Jubbaland security minister who had defected to the Federal Government of Somalia. Janan had led Jubbaland forces in capturing Beled Hawo.

 Mogadishu and Addis Ababa are involved in a proxy war over the recently launched Renaissance Dam in Ethiopia. Egyptians are unhappy with Ethiopia for putting up the dam. Incidentally, Egyptians happen to be the latest nation to join as UNSOM troop contributing countries. Somalia wants to hand over Gedo region to the Egyptians. There-in lies the rising tensions between the two Horn of Africa nations and to a lesser extent, Kenya.

Kenya has always used Jubbaland as a buffer zone in the fight against terror group Al Shabaab. Madobe has been Nairobi’s most reliable leader in the state.

President Mohamud has made several trips to Cairo without any tangible benefits to Somalia and those trips have raised more questions than answers. Many Somalis are concerned that the president could be entangling the country in a conflict with far-reaching consequences.

Observers of politics in the Horn now have their eyes glued on the Somali president and where his next visit will be. Many believe that he will most likely land in Nairobi for more “bilateral talks” between the two nations.

Exit the Somalia president and in comes the leader of the breakaway republic of Somaliland. President Irro was in Addis Ababa to review ongoing trade, investment and security between the two nations.

Ethiopia has maintained close engagement with Somaliland in recent years, particularly through trade routes and port access through the coastal town of Berbera, even as the Federal Government of Somalia continues to assert its sovereignty over the territory. But diplomatic sources indicate that the meeyongs may have had everything to do with the ongoing maritime and regional security matters that dominate discussions in the Horn of Africa. None of the two governments have issued a communique regarding the visit.

This was president Irro’s first official visit to Addis Ababa since assuming office earlier this year. The trip signals Hargeisa’s intention to maintain dialogue with regional powers while navigating complex regional dynamics.

Political observers in the region point out that the timing of the two visits landing in Addsis Ababa within 24 hours of each other speaks volumes and the intensifying diplomatic activities in the Horn of Africa, as alliances shift and amid renewed efforts to stabilize cross-border relations.

Meanwhile, Raila Odinga former Prime Minister of Kenya and an indefatigable opposition leader has rested. Raila died in India while undergoing treatment at a local hospital.

His name was a household name on the African continent after he served as the chair of the infrastructure at the African Union. Raila was also employed by the continental body to resolve some conflicts.

However, it was Raila Odinga’s last engagement with the continent that stands out in his death. He offered his candidature for the position of the Chairperson of the African Union Commission in elections held in Addis Ababa early this year.

The Kenyan candidate fell short of capturing the prestigious position which went to the then Djiboutian foreign minister. It is believed Raila was undone by the Muslim nations on the continent, including Somalia who chose to cast their lot with the Djibouti candidate. Given Raila Odinga’s massive footprint on the continent, as condolence messages pour in for the Kenyan opposition leader, Mogadishu must be feeling guilty for not voting with the regional bloc to make Raila the first AU chair from East Africa.

Fare thee well, Raila Odinga. You are the best Chairperson of the AU Commission that the continent never had.