What Kenya risks if stripped of US Non-NATO ally status

For weeks, Kenyans have been embroiled in a heated debate over whether the government has mishandled foreign policy after US Senator Jim Risch, the ranking member of the Senate Foreign Relations Committee, proposed an amendment to the National Defense Authorisation Act that would strip Kenya of its Major Non-NATO Ally (MNNA) designation.

Kenya became the first Sub-Saharan African country to receive the designation in June 2023, joining 19 other countries with closer military and economic ties to Washington. 

The status, short of NATO membership, offers access to US intelligence, surplus defense equipment, joint research programs, and easier financing for security needs.

What Kenya stands to lose

Experts now warn that the fallout would extend beyond defense. 

“We have to ask ourselves, what are we losing? In this agreement, Kenya should be given some intelligence. When you are a non-NATO ally, you get some intelligence that other countries don't get. Military stockpiles can be built in your country, such as the one in Lamu,” says Professor Fred Ogolla.

MNNA countries enjoy priority access to US stockpiles and opportunities for their firms to bid on contracts to maintain American military equipment abroad.

While MNNA is not guaranteed military protection, assured to the 32 member states of the North Atlantic Treaty Organisation (NATO), they have a special military and defence cooperation with the US.

This arrangement offers access to high-end military resources and economic assistance. The pact can help elevate the military capabilities of a member state through advanced training, modern equipment, or even intelligence sharing.

But, Kenya stands to lose more than that. First, there are military privileges like being the first in line to get defence equipment which the US has in excess, joint research and development opportunities, and opportunities to sell to the US their depleted uranium ammunition used in making weapons.

MNNA is allowed to front firms for the award of contracts to maintain and repair US defence equipment outside the country, presenting a lucrative foreign exchange earning opportunity.

Then, there is the economic aspect of it. The US may use its influence to assist MNNA access loans, grants, and aid, especially from institutions like the World Bank and International Monetary Fund (IMF). Kenya has, over the years, looked outside its borders to get funds to bridge the deficits in annual budgets.

“Additionally, Kenya can access loans for the purchase of military equipment to boost security. It means the country qualifies for some loans from America. So, whenever America wants to give Kenya loans, there's not too much bilateral or trilateral negotiation,” said Professor Ogolla.

Professor Macharia Munene, an international relations scholar, is more concerned about the reputational damage and loss of the prestige of being the only country in Sub-Saharan Africa to attain the status since 1987 when the cooperation came into place.

Egypt, Morocco, and Tunisia are the only other MNNAs on the continent.

According to the professor, Kenya could also lose the favour it has enjoyed from global bodies that have considered it a prime location for their operations.

“Kenya could lose its status as the preferred hub for global things in Africa. The supposed relocation of UN agencies from New York to Nairobi could be diverted if there is a belief that Kenya hobnobs with terror groups and international criminals,” says Munene.

At the same time, he opines that Kenya could be a victim of President Donald Trump’s sustained reversal of policies and decisions of the Joe Biden administration.

“Although Africa has never ranked high in any US administration, the Trump view of Africa, in which he called Africa a dumping ground for human waste, is on the low side. Besides, Kenya is the paternal home of Barack Obama. Trump represents an American resurgence of racism, clothed in polite language.” 

Kenya and the US troops share many years of close collaboration, especially in the global antiterrorism efforts. Former US President Joe Biden, while conferring Kenya MNNA status on June 24 last year, cited the country’s role in global peace, especially in the Horn of Africa region. 

However, it is Kenya’s deployment of 1,000 officers to gang-infested and violence-prone Haiti to lead a United Nations peacekeeping mission that sealed the recognition.

However, the designation carries its own baggage that Kenya may be relieved of when it is stripped of the status such automatic inheritance of America’s enemies.

“We are giving them land (for the US bases). We are risking our country because if you build some military bases which are attacking Islamic countries, Muslim countries will become hostile against Kenya if Kenya becomes a base for bombing them. America normally uses another country as a launching pad to bomb another country.  They call them allied forces,” remarked Professor Ogolla.

The case against Kenya

Senator Jim Risch argues Kenya has not lived up to US expectations. 

He accuses Nairobi of deepening ties with China, Russia, and Iran while tolerating links between senior political figures and armed groups such as Sudan’s Rapid Support Forces and Somalia’s al-Shabaab. 

His amendment also alleges Kenya has become a financial haven for US-sanctioned entities.

A deteriorating human rights record and growing trade with China are also cited as grounds for delisting. Risch seized on President William Ruto’s May remarks in Beijing, where he declared Kenya and China “co-architects of a new world order.”

Where the rain started beating Kenya

President Ruto came on Senator Risch’s radar in May this year, over a statement made before President Xi Jinping during his state visit to China, in which he passionately called out current global imbalances in tariffs and loans, which worked against middle and low-income countries while benefiting the West.

Ruto said: "Kenya and China are co-architects of a new world order."

He instantly caught the ire of Senator Risch, who brought the speech to the floor of the Senate.

Divided views

Some analysts argue that losing MNNA status would shield Kenya from inheriting America’s enemies. 

“By hosting US bases, we risk becoming targets for their adversaries,” says Ogolla. “America often uses allies as launchpads for its wars.”

But others say delisting remains unlikely. Only Afghanistan has ever been stripped of the designation, after the Taliban takeover.

Kenyan officials have, however, downplayed the risk. Foreign Affairs Cabinet Secretary Musalia Mudavadi told lawmakers on August 7 that the proposal reflected “the views of a senator, not an executive directive.” 

His Principal Secretary, Korir Sing’oe, speaking separately, said, “No need to be too excited. The issues canvassed in the congressional bill will be comprehensively addressed, taking into account Kenya’s sovereignty and interests.”

Speaking when an American delegation from California met with President Ruto at State House, Nairobi, last month, US Embassy Charge d'Affaires Carla Benini reassured Kenya of strong ties, citing Kenya’s strategic role in America’s diplomacy with Africa. “Kenya remains central to our US-Africa policy. When we are doing something in Africa, we do it in Kenya first. This is because of our shared interests and alignment on governance, rule of law, and democracy,” she said.

But in the US, Congress is powerful and directs the executive every now and then. It has impeached Presidents before, and can surely delist Kenya from the MNNAs through continued pressure on the executive.

"Kenya should not let go of this status, because this status is important. It has a commercial benefit. It has geopolitical influence,” said Prof Ogolla.